40 "states": 39 states + DC 45 years: 1969–2013 19 age groups: <1, 1-4, 5-9, …, 85+ 2 genders 2 races (black, white) 6 major causes of deaths: cardiovascular disease, cancer, non-communicable, communicable, injuries, all other causes = 820,800 rows of data
Estimated smoothed mortality rates using a Bayesian time series model with Poisson likelihood Used a truncated Poisson likelihood when number of deaths were between 1 and 9 1,000 posterior samples. For each: Create a life table for every strata Calculate the difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites Decompose the difference by age and cause of death Calculate age-standardized mortality rates Calculate the mean, 5th and 95th percentiles for all estimates Compute national trend using random-effects meta regression